Research Paper
Year: 2020 | Month: July-September | Volume: 5 | Issue: 3 | Pages: 465-469
The Interdependence between Temperature and Rainfall in Rwanda
Nancy Clemence Ishimwe1, Tharcille Ingabire2, Marie Laetitia Benimana3, Fabrice Musafiri4, Gloria Berimana5, Jean Paul Muhoza6
1Mathematics Physics and Geography Combination, Groupe Scolaire de Shyogwe, Rwanda
2Department of Economics, School of Business and Economics, Kigali Independent University, Rwanda
3Department of Data Science, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Rwanda
4Department of Mining Engineering, College of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda
5Department of Computer Engineering, College of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda
6Department of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health sciences,University of Rwanda
Corresponding Author: Nancy Clemence Ishimwe
ABSTRACT
Rainfall and temperature are important climatic inputs for agricultural production, especially in the context of climate change. However, accurate analysis and simulation of the joint distribution of rainfall and temperature are difficult due to possible interdependence between them. As one possible approach to this problem, five families of copula models are employed to model the interdependence between rainfall and temperature. Rwanda like other countries has been affected by climate change induced by temperature and increased precipitation. Historical climatic data for Rwanda is used to demonstrate the modeling process. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of sample data are also considered to eliminate the possibility of observation error. The results indicate that in Rwanda, there are negative correlations between rainfall and temperature for the months January and February. Using copula model is the bivariate distribution of rain fall and temperature were modeled based on AIC and BIC. Using the Kendall correlation, we simulated temperature and rainfall simultaneously. The resulting models can be integrated with research on agricultural production and planning to study the effects of changing climate on crop yields.
Keywords: Rainfall, temperature, climate change